The “green” generation in Ukraine may have three development scenarios. Which of them is optimal, what should be done to achieve it and how much consumers will have pay – all these questions were covered by Vsevolod Kovalchuk, CEO at Ukrenergo, during a presentation about the possibilities of integrating the capacities of renewable energy sources into the power system of Ukraine.
The presentation and discussion took place in one of the halls of NSC “Olympiyskiy” with the participation of about 200 experts, representatives of generation, the public and the media.
Ukrenergo conducted the studies about the possibility of integrating RES into the power system of Ukraine on the basis of statistical data regarding the operation of solar and wind power plants and taking into account their long-term development in different balance conditions for specific seasons (winter maximum, summer minimum and flood) at the average annual temperature. At the same time, the studies considered the requirements for observing safety parameters as well as ensuring the balance and stable operation of the IPS of Ukraine.
“The power system of Ukraine can accept only 3,000 MW of SPP and WPP capacities without any risk of imbalance,” Vsevolod Kovalchuk, CEO at Ukrenergo, stated. “At the same time, as of today, Ukrenergo issued technical conditions for the accession of capacities twice as much as currently possible (7,500 MW) for the period up to 2025,” he noted.
At present, the total installed capacity of WPP and SPP equals to 1,353 MW (WPP – 512 MW, SPP – 841 MW), which has little effect on the balance, so the deviation of their generation from target indicators is compensated by the existing maneuvering capacities of the generating companies of TPP, HPS and HPSPP. The absence of a system for forecasting RES electricity generation in Ukraine precludes the precise prediction of the level of generation of wind and solar power plants. In the presented study, the prediction error was about 30%, while the standard rate amounts to 50%.
According to Ukrenergo’s calculations, by 2025, when the installed capacity of RES reaches 7,500 MW, development of the IPS may follow three scenarios, and, in any case, additional measures are required to balance the system:
“A” – no additional high-maneuvering capacities are introduced (at the current level of forecasting), and the production of electricity from RES is forcibly limited.
“B” – the share of nuclear power plants is limited and, accordingly, the share of coal generation is increased in order to provide the necessary maneuvering capacities, with “green” generation being unlimited.
“C” – the development of “green” generation is ensured and increased together with the introduction of a precise forecasting system and the construction of 2,500 MW of new high-maneuvering balancing capacities.
Ukrenergo offers the third – the most optimal alternative in terms of the balance of consumer interests and the development of RES.
The first component of the “C” development plan for “green” generation is the introduction of 2,500 MW of new high-maneuvering balancing capacities. This will allow us to avoid an increase in the generation of electricity at TPP and the limitation of generation from RES and NPP, as well as restrain the growth of electricity tariffs for consumers of all categories.
In this context, Ukrenergo prepared an updated “Report on assessing the conformity (adequacy) of generating capacities.” On its basis, the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Utilities should determine the mechanism of financing the construction of high-maneuvering capacities for the full development of the market of auxiliary services, while the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry should hold a tender for their construction by the end of 2018.
The approximate cost of construction of such high-maneuvering capacities amounts to 55 billion UAH, with the payback period equaling to about six years. “This will allow consumers to save about 65 billion UAH annually due to minimizing the growth of tariffs for electricity, depending, inter alia, on the composition of generation,” Vsevolod Kovalchuk noted.
The best option provides for the construction of gas-piston power stations with a 10-minute period of the output of units at full capacity, as well as batteries, allowing quick regulation of deviations within one hour.
In addition, the introduction of a system of precise forecasting with deviations at the level of 5-10% in the day-ahead market and 3-5% in the intraday market is another priority measure for the plan “C” implementation.
“The absence of this system will cost the consumer at least 400 million UAH annually, providing the commissioning of 7,500 MW of RES, since it will increase the need for maneuvering capacities to balance the system. At the same time, Ukraine is using the coal generation of TPP for this purpose, which is the most expensive and the most environmentally unfriendly method of generation,” CEO at Ukrenergo said. “We must develop and implement a new high-precision forecasting system as soon as possible. Its cost (about 800 million UAH) will be paid off in less than a year,” Vsevolod Kovalchuk noted.
However, the future of the Ukrainian energy sector depends on the government. Namely, on the approval of the mechanism for holding competitions and financing the construction of maneuvering capacities, developed on the basis of Ukrenergo’s “Report on assessing the conformity (adequacy) of generating capacities.”