The Ministry of Energy and Environmental Protection of Ukraine approved the updated forecast electricity balance for 2020 on 28 April 2020.
The document states that if compared to the previous version of the balance, the electricity consumption will drop by 5.7% (to 139.2 billion kWh). This indicator takes into account the decline rate of electricity consumption during quarantine measures that affected the use of electricity by the housing and communal services, trade and service sector, educational institutions, enterprises, etc.
The import of electricity to the main part of the IPS of Ukraine from Russia and Belarus is not envisaged until the end of 2020. The import to Burshtyn Island TPP from the EU states is envisaged at the level of 4.9 billion kWh. The export of electricity is projected at about 7 billion kWh, of which 6.6 billion kWh to the EU states.
The volumes of electricity generation by renewable energy sources (RES) are envisaged at the level of 11.4 billion kWh. Where solar power plants (SPPs) produce 6.67 billion kWh, wind power plants (WPPs) — 3.86 billion kWh, and other RES (biomass TPPs, etc.) — 847 million kWh. It is also important to note that the existing Law of Ukraine “On Electricity Market” obliges the state to buy all electricity generated by RES, irrespective of whether it can be consumed or not. Also, the Law exempts RES from balance responsibility and guarantees them full compensation of the lost profit in case of potential constraints. As a result, the limitation of RES volumes is the most expensive balancing instrument and is applied by Ukrenergo only short-term in case there is a threat to the operational security of the IPS of Ukraine.
The total decrease in generation if compared to the previous version of the balance is 5.9% (to 143 billion kWh).
This includes the projected decrease in NPPs generation by 8.6% (to 73.7 billion kWh), TPPs — 7.8% (to 38.9 billion kWh), and HPPs — 4.8% (to 4.85 billion kWh). At the same time, electricity generation by TPPs (that ensured the thermal power generation during the heating season) will be maintained approximately at the same level (11.1 billion kWh).
Generation volumes of nuclear and thermal power plants (NPPs and TPPs) are calculated taking into account the unconditional fulfilment of regulatory requirements for providing the necessary upward (1000 MW) and downward (421 MW) reserves. And also in line with actual trends of changes in electricity sale volumes in bilateral contracts market (BCM), day-ahead market (DAM) and intraday market (IDM) by respective generating companies.
Specifically, the calculation of volumes was designed to prevent a significant surplus in the electricity market that reached 53 million kWh back in the first half of April. And starting from 21 April, after the NPP base load capacity limitation, it dropped to 30.7 million kWh.
The surplus in the electricity market means electricity that has been generated but not sold to the end consumer under bilateral contracts, in the day-ahead market or in the intraday market. In accordance with existing rules, all this electricity is sold in the balancing market. The significant surplus of electricity artificially increases the volumes of the balancing market and complicates balancing of the power system. For this reason, the accord of electricity generation volumes with volumes of its procurement by end consumers is paramount for the efficient management of the power system and the assurance its manageability, and also serves as an instrument to balance the electricity supply and demand.
In HPPs electricity production, 4.3 billion kWh is generated by PJSC “Ukrhydroenergo”. This volume was calculated based on proposals submitted by this generator and taking into account the current hydro-meteorological situation in the basins of the Dnieper River, the Desna River, the Dniester River, and in consultation with the Ukrainian Hydro-Meteorological Centre regarding high water indicators.
It should be noted that the current water content of almost all rivers and the water inflow to reservoirs of the Dnieper Cascade HPPs are the lowest over the observation period and forecasts do not exclude hydrological drought. Considering that HPPs are the primary high-manoeuvre resource of the IPS of Ukraine, the additional burden of controlling the daily schedules of the load will be placed on the TPPs, and the issue of building new high-manoeuvre capacities that would be independent of hydro-meteorological conditions becomes particularly acute.
The new forecast balance will help resolve the technological issues of the power system balancing during the period of reduced demand for electricity and is an essential prerequisite for elimination of the financial deficit in the market.