NEURC has approved Ukrenergo’s Report on the Assessment of Adequacy (Sufficiency) of Generating Capacities for 2020 (the Generation Adequacy Report).
The document is based on modelling and analysis of multiple scenarios of Ukraine’s power and economic sectors development and is updated on an annual basis under the Law of Ukraine “On Electricity Market” and a number of regulations.
The Generation Adequacy Report is grounded on the following components:
- modelling of the electricity market;
- analysis of levels and modes of energy consumption, and the state and operating modes of generation capacities;
- development scenarios of electricity demand and supply;
- development scenarios of renewables, TPPs and CHPPs (taking into account the National Emissions Reduction Plan for Large Combustion Plants);
- potential utilization of interconnectors to cover demand and reserves in the light of Ukraine’s power system integration into ENTSOE;
- estimate of necessary investments to implement the target scenario of power system development, etc.
According to the Generation Adequacy Report, the target scenario of generating capacities development in Ukraine’s power system reflects current energy-saving trends and envisages the rising share of renewables of all kinds in the energy mix during the next 10–11 years. In 2020, it has doubled if compared to the previous year (3.5% in 2019 versus 7.39% in 2020). In the next three years (2021–2023) the rising trend should be maintained, although according to forecasts it will be significantly slowing down (dropping from 16% in 2022 to 2.4% in 2031).
In the future, renewable energy should partly replace electricity generated by coal-fired TPPs, which according to forecasts will reduce generation output by almost 12% by 2031.
To implement this scenario of renewables development in Ukraine, the power system needs to be more flexible. To do this it is necessary to build soon:
- minimum 1 GW of highly manoeuvrable capacities with quick start (full ramp up from stop – maximum 15 minutes, enabling at least 4 starts and stops a day with the control range at least 80% of installed capacity). However, to maximize renewable energy generation and, accordingly, minimize its curtailments it would be more effective to build a minimum of 2 GW of highly manoeuvrable capacities.
- 5 GW of energy storages, provided that renewables will participate in the power system balancing and provision of reserves. Without renewables participation in balancing or forced curtailment of nuclear power, the need for energy storages can grow up to 2 GW.
In addition, to implement the targeted scenario of generation capacities development, it is necessary to ensure by 2031 the constant availability of at least 12 GW operating capacity of thermal power plants, which today are main generators contributing to the power system balancing. This can be done by retrofitting coal-fired TPPs and implementing measures to reduce their emissions. One of the solutions to this problem can be the soonest reconstruction of TPP power units or new construction of 1.2–1.5 GW of semipeak capacity.
The Generation Adequacy Report also recommends providing state support to renewables through auctions of support quota distribution but only after resolving the issue of renewables curtailment to ensure the operational security of the power system. And when establishing the support quotas, new renewables investors should commit to building energy storages or compensating capacities of other types having the volume of 20% of the installed capacity of their renewables.
According to the baseline assessment scenario, a failure to implement these measures in the nearest future will add to existing problems of the inadequacy of generating capacities the problem of the insufficiency of generating capacities already in 2025.
Ukrenergo has prepared and submitted to the Ministry of Energy the technical specifications for the tender for construction of the first 500 MW of highly manoeuvrable generation, and the 10-Year Transmission System Development Plan specifies the volumes and connection locations for new highly manoeuvrable generation and energy storages.
Implementation of recommendations outlined in the Generation Adequacy Report is contingent upon consolidated efforts of legislative and executive authorities, electricity market participants, and investors.
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