What will happen to the world energy market in 15-30 years? When the half of the global population will be using electric vehicles? What paradoxes occur in the fight against harmful emissions? The answer to these and other questions awaits you in the next issue of Ukrenergo Review.
1. In 15 years, half of all new cars will be electric.
By 2033, 50% of all new cars in the world economy will fall on electric vehicles. This forecast was made by an international consulting company DNV GL in its report Energy Transition Production 2018 – Energy Supply and Forecast for use by 2050, according to ElectricEnergyOnline.
This growth will be accompanied by an S-shaped innovation curve. And the pace of sales of “clean” electric vehicles (EV) will increase from 10% to 90% over the next 10 years. This is reported in the Energy transition Production 2018 – Energy Supply and Forecast for use by 2050 message.
The report shows that some countries, including Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France and India, have already set the goal of phasing out or banning gasoline and diesel vehicles. DNV GL forecasts show that those can be reached.
2.In the EU, they want to get a third of total energy generation share from renewable sources in 12 years.
The European Union (EU) plans to receive 32% of renewable energy (RES) by 2030 and increase energy efficiency to 32.5%. The new goals are announced in the changes to the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Directives adopted by the EU Council. This is reported on the portal of the Council of the EU.
The above changes are the final stage of the legislative procedure for the three documents that are part of the Clean Energy Energy Package.
Plans to increase the share of RES are aimed at accelerating the pace of transition of Europe to environmentally clean energy. They envisage the creation of diverse RES, which include all types of such generation: wind power, solar power, hydropower, energy of tributaries, geothermal energy, biomass and biofuels.
The three mentioned legislative documents are part of the Clean Energy Energy Package, which was presented by the Commission in November 2016. This time, the adoption by the European Council of these documents was a final step. It is planned that these documents will be published in the Official Journal of the EU on December 21.
3.Carbon emissions may increase in developed countries.
According to the 2018 results, carbon emissions (CO2) can grow by 0.5% in North America, the European Union and the developed countries of the Asia-Pacific region. This forecast is provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA), reports ElectricEnergyOnline.
The increase in emissions is due to a significant increase in oil and gas consumption, which undermined the effect of reducing the use of coal technologies to reduce harmful emissions.
Although emissions are 2.4% lower than the pace of economic growth, governments in particular are struggling to reach the goals of the Paris Climate Pact. The IEA also expects that emerging economies in 2018 will also increase CO2 emissions compared to last year.
Full global data on energy and CO2 developments for 2018 will be released in March 2019. Yet, everything indicates now to the growth of emissions around the world. This is a consequence of the growth of energy consumption and the world economy by 3.7%.
“We should increase our efforts to stimulate renewables, nuclear energy, energy efficiency and innovation for technologies such as carbon sequestration, carbon capture and storage”, said Dr. Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.
4.Wind energy can become self-financing by 2025.
Reducing capital costs for large-scale wind and solar projects and rising prices for organic fuels and carbohydrate prices could increase the competitiveness of renewable energy sources (RES) already in 2025. As a result, large solar and wind energy projects will be able to compete in the wholesale electricity market. Such a forecast is given by the Center on Regulation in Europe (CERRE), reports PV-magazine.
CERRE analysts point out that wind and solar energy investments will increase as tax rates are reduced. The creation of markets for sales or enhancement of ancillary services markets is seen as an option that can lead to an increase in the cost of capital for new power plants due to their volatile and unpredictable revenue streams.
However, CERRE analysts warn that the turnover of additional services may be volatile, as network operators may be forced to minimize the total cost of ancillary services under their national incentive laws, while wholesale electricity markets are becoming increasingly interconnected across Europe and can provide long-term pricing policies that can be used to build future forecasts.
CERRE experts noted that sustained development of solar and wind energy requires sustained funding, further reduction of renewable energy costs, closure of most fossil fuel power plants and increased carbon prices.
5.By 2050 solar energy will constitute 69% of the world energy market.
If in the next 32 years the volume of oil, nuclear and coal generating capacity will not increase and renewable energy sources will grow by 3-4% each year, in 2050 solar energy will account for 69% of all energy production. Such a conclusion was made in the study of the Technology University of Lappeenranta (Finland), reports Pv-magazine.
At the same time, the power of wind power in the world energy market will increase from 4% to 18% by 2050. The share of hydropower will, on the contrary, decrease from 16% to 8%.